Rick Perry vs World
08 September 2014
A tale of two Democratic ads
This is a pretty good ad. Watch it with the sound off. She's much better than when she gets obvious questions that she didn't prepare for. She believes what she's saying, she's got authentic anger in the spots where she should. It does a good job of arguing her version of the facts while portraying her as a centrist.
And it was cheap to produce, which is key as she has no money. [Aside: voters don't care about production values. Political consultants like expensive ads because they make more money from them and because they win meaningless Pollie awards.]
Contrast that with the Wendy Davis education ad which I saw while watching the NFL today
Van de Putte's ad has a certain credibility. This one doesn't. Blaming the AG for something the legislature passed. Making something up about 4 year olds that no one believes -- and especially not from Wendy Davis.
Everything about this ad said "standard campaign ad that voters tune out."
Maybe Wendy Davis should hire Van de Putte to run her campaign? I imagine she'd do better than Obama's man in Texas.
05 September 2014
When you're not even popular on your own ad
A Wendy Davis ad showed up on my Facebook feed tonight.
The great thing about Facebook from an advertiser's perspective is that you advertise on Facebook because you can target your prospective customers very carefully. So the fact that I was seeing the ad means they probably hadn't done a good job of spending the money of Wendy's California donors. But then I scrolled down. I was so surprised I had to take a screenshot:
All the top comments are against Wendy on her own ad. Even after presumably trying to target swing voters, all the responses were negative. And those were some fired up responses.
03 September 2014
When you start losing the alt-weekly crowd...
Jim Schutze of the Dallas Observer on Wallace Hall:
But what is to be said for the Texas press and its handling of the Wallace Hall story? Every major newspaper in the state has either called for Hall's head at one point or questioned his integrity, most of them basing their complaints on an allegation that Hall asked for too much information from the university -- in other words, that he did too much reporting.
Eight months later in a triumph of virtuoso investigative reporting, Jon Cassidy, writing for Watchdog.org, an online news service sponsored by a conservative foundation, laid out the real back story of the law school admissions racket. Pitts had told the truth about one thing: It was standard practice.
In an ingenious use of public information laws and law school application procedures, Cassidy was able to expose an entire cadre of candidates admitted to UT law school in spite of startlingly low scores on the national Law School Admission Test (LSAT), many of whom graduated somehow, but, unlike almost anybody else at UT Law School, kept flunking their bar exams after they got out.
Of these, 15 of the names unearthed by Cassidy were of students directly linked to officeholders, either by blood, influence or money. Cassidy reported that a large number of ringers came from the district of state Senator Judith Zaffirini, former chair of the state higher education committee, including her son Carlos Manuel Zaffirini Jr. Many were connected to House Speaker Joe Straus.
I guess we know why Speaker Straus has been trying so hard to impeach Wallace Hall.
Deleting that tweet
That Rick Perry tweet and delete was canny.
He got us all talking about what he wanted us to talk about.
25 August 2014
Wendy Davis is 10 points behind where Bill White was 4 years ago
How many Texans would bet anything at even money that Wendy Davis does better than Bill White on Election Day?
Four years ago today, two polls had Bill White within the margin of error of Rick Perry. Zogby had him down just 3, and Hill Research Consultants had him down 1. Right now we've got polls out that show Wendy Davis down 8 (Rasmussen) and down 18 (trade group poll). Most of the recent numbers are closer to the trade group poll than to Rasmussen.
People tend to forget that Bill White actually ran a decent race. He spent lots of time talking about himself being a fiscal conservative, despite the fact that his record as mayor of Houston reflected the contrary. Still, he tried to convince Texans that he shared our values. It didn't work, because 2010 was not a year in which Texans were likely to be fooled.
On the contrary, Wendy Davis hasn't even tried to convince Texans that she shares our values. Her only real feint in that direction was so awkward that she managed to lose support on the left while highlighting her own anti-gun record. As we now say in Texas politics, "oops."
Or maybe coming out for open carry was simply a reflection of her home state Rhode Island values?
[Yes, somehow Rhode Island is more pro-gun than Texas when it comes to handgun open carry. We have Joe Straus to thank for that.]
Wendy Davis has never seemed to understand that being Obama's pick to turn Texas blue was going to hurt her. And maybe that is the ultimate sign that she doesn't share our values.
12 August 2014
Random attack ads in early August
My first thought was, "did they even focus group this?" It's not a good ad. It's slow, it barely mentions Greg Abbott, it requires assuming bad faith by Abbott to be effective when they haven't built the message that would enable belief.
My second thought was that it's possible that it did ok in focus groups. Focus groups aren't going to hit the remote to change the channel, because they can't. They'll try to suggest cute phrases like "thank God this time Greg Abbott lost." On the other hand, you'd think they'd point out that the ridiculous final screen of
"another insider, not working for you" is not supported by anything in the ad.
As it has been throughout the campaign, the message is inconsistent. Sometimes it seems like she's running for governor of her native Rhode Island, and then the next day she awkwardly tries to pander to Texas value by flip-flopping on gun rights.
So Wendy Davis is spending money to try to temporarily drive Abbott's poll numbers down in the hope that the left will keep writing big checks to a candidate down 10 points.
Throw something against the wall and see if it sticks. Even if it is the opposite of what you said yesterday -- it's the Wendy Davis strategy.
01 August 2014
Texas Democrats have Robert Earl Keen.
Texas Republicans have Pat Green:
Note that Greg Abbott sticker on the guitar.
22 July 2014
Obama's man in Texas
Dan Balz writes up Wendy Davis' helter-skelter campaign for the Washington Post. It has some truly impressive quotes from Obama's Man In Texas.
Without doing anything, Democrats say, they expect to see their vote totals grow slowly over time
Well, at least we have something to measure them against. However, this has been a standard refrain for about 15 years. You might recall that Tony Sanchez even dropped $80 million in 2002 (105 million in 2014 dollars) to test out whether there was any validity to this theory.
Jeremy Bird, who set up Battleground Texas, said there is a path to victory for Davis: turning out registered minority voters who often stay home; registering unregistered minority voters; and attracting the support of suburban white women. She will do better among African Americans and Hispanics than the polls now show, he said.
Everything about this paragraph is amusing. The Obama staffer from up North has figured it a path to victory. It has just 3 easy parts:
1. turnout registered minorities
2. register unregistered minorities
3. win suburban white woman
Maybe Steve and Amber Mostyn are fooled by this, but to the rest of us this sounds preposterous.
Turnout registered minorities? You mean, white liberal Wendy Davis of the abortion filibuster is going to convince "minorities" to turnout to vote more than Obama did? Keep in mind that Bird's definition of minorities means that most of the group is Latino.
Register unregistered minorities
Yes, not only is Wendy Davis is going to succeed where Obama failed when it comes to turnout, but she's also going to find people who don't care enough about voting to even register, and she's going to convince them to register AND vote.
Jeremy Bird failed so well in South Texas in the primary that he'd really like it if you gave him another few million dollars to try again. [Maybe Steve Mostyn will sue him for malpractice?]
Win suburban white women
Yes, abortion radical Wendy Davis is going to do the previous two things...and then get weak Republican suburban white woman to vote...for Wendy Davis?
Someone has been spending too much time in Austin. The first two parts were at least correlated. But the third is uncorrelated at best with the first two, and probably negatively correlated. Some messaging needles can't be threaded, especially when you've got a voting record as liberal as Wendy Davis.
BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!
Abbott, they argue, is more conservative and less skilled as a politician than the man he seeks to replace, Gov. Rick Perry, and has been thrown on the defensive repeatedly during the campaign.
This is rich. Maybe Jeremy Bird was too busy working for Howard Dean, John Kerry and Barack Obama to notice that all of his predecessors have spent the last 15 years labeling Rick Perry as an extremist and an idiot. Governor Goodhair, Governor 39%, etc etc. "He wasn't elected to governor, he has no chance in 2002 against a Bush fundraiser who will throw money at the race." "He only won 39%, he's dead." "He only won in 2006 because Kay decided she Washington, DC needed her." "Kay will destroy him in 2010"
The list could go on forever.
But now that Rick Perry is leaving, they want to forget "oops" and lionize Governor Perry as the opposite of everything they've said for the last 15 years.
Eses Norteños agrandados tendrían que pasar algunos años más en Texas antes de pensar que aún tienen idea de cómo pensamos en Texas.
16 July 2014
Van de Putte's new ad
Leticia Van de Putte's new ad in Spanish:
Notice that massive crucifix she's wearing in the Spanish ad? It has conspicuously disappeared for the English ad. I'm confident that I'm not the only one who has never seen Van de Putte wearing such a big cross.
With all that said, it's a pretty good ad that probably achieves its aims. Better in Spanish than English.
15 July 2014
EXCLUSIVE: Alternate Texas Monthly cover found
This was the alternate cover for the Texas Monthly edition.
In the name of journalistic accuracy, they probably should've chosen the alternate cover.
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